Week 1 Rankings

Week 1 rankings are about snap judgements- extrapolating as much about our bakers as possible from brief, introductory glimpses. Early in the season, each episode's screen time is split among more contestants. We barely get a few words from the judges on each baking contest.

While there is publicly available information on the contestants and research is possible outside the show, the prior winners include gym teachers, physicists, lawyers, and stuntwomen. The belief that anyone can ultimately emerge as the best baker is at the heart of this contest. Indexing off anything other than what we see in the episode feels not only speculative, but antithetical to GBBO's core ethos. 

Besides, anyone that's followed this series knows this contest is as much about the character, strategy and determination the characters bring to the tent as it is about their beginning experience and skill level. Eagerness to grow and adapt will change our baker's fortunes over the season.

So with relatively little to go off, we continued our long-running, couch-cushion tradition of predicting each contestants' chances of making the final. After ten seasons of watching bakers rise and fall, we independently arrived at remarkably similar results. In a year when so many of the richest parts of life are unavailable, we've decided to publish our weekly GBBO power rankings for anyone else that cherishes this show as much as we do.

Please chalk any coarseness in commentary, questionable spellings or choice of format up to me being an American, an NFL fan, and a GBBO Fantasy League contestant. ❤️  S&A

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⭐️  Star baker awards | 🥇 Technical first place | 🥈 Technical second place | 🥉 Technical third place
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#1 Sura​

 (+/- NA) 🥇
You better have good reasons to give the #1 spot to someone other than the first star baker. We each came up with several. Sura was in tears after a mortifying and innocent accident, but accepted the good-natured consolations from Noel & Matt and then went on to help Laura with the stressful, buzzer-beater construction of her Freddie Mercury showstopper. Sura had strong showings in the signature, top placement in the technical, and an ambitious and meticulously well-executed showstopper which she finished early ⏱. Combine her baking performance with the ability to bounce from the Dave fiasco to the Laura save, and Sura is clear finalist material.

​Flipside- Clumsiness is unaffordable in the tent.🤞 this week's collision is the complete one-off we believe it to be. It's also possible we're biased by our shared love of Sir David Attenborough.

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#2 Peter​

 (+/- NA) ⭐️🥈
Peter made an incredible debut. The youngest baker in every prior season has brought an abundance of raw talent, but Peter's self-imposed commitment to gluten-free recipes demonstrates ingenuity and discipline as well. He impressed judges with his flavors, is aware of his strengths and weaknesses, and coupled strategic restraint with excellent execution in his showstopper design 🚴‍♂️. Peter may be outshone by flashier bakes in individual contests, but exhibits all the qualities we see in finalists that have endured and won out over the long haul. Second place in technical and claiming the first star baker prize put him at the head of the tent.

​Flipside- There's no call for unnecessary risks in week 1, but Peter may need to stretch himself and prove he can execute outside his comfort zone to survive late in the season. 

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#3 Hermine

 (+/- NA) 
With bold flavors and decorative flourish in her signature, a solid #5 finish in the technical, and a showstopper that was both visually stunning and delicious, Hermine's creativity and technical acumen were consistently impressive. She overreached just slightly with her attempt at realistic portraiture, but that specific skill is unlikely to matter again this season, and taking the right-sized risks will serve her well. Her self-reported strong suit is patisserie. It showed in her detail work and will undoubtedly show again. She's on a finalist trajectory coming out of week 1.

​Flipside- Some specialists get tripped up on other bakes. Let's see how Hermine does when bread week rolls around. 

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#4 Lottie

 (+/- NA) 
We didn't see as much of Lottie as some other bakers this week, but every time we did she was coolly executing against her clever and artistic vision. Her signature was strong and she accepted the judges' feedback on flavor variety with self-deprecating and good-natured humor. She finished 4th in the technical and delivered an absolutely brilliant showstopper. Her skull-up Louis Theroux construction eliminated many of the challenges other bakers faced and still gave her plenty of room to show off her creative, decorative skills. If Lottie continues to push herself, she's a close contender for finalist.

​Flipside- Flavor is the hardest aspect of this contest to judge from home. Lottie must continue to lead with substance as well as style. 

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#5 Mak

 (+/- NA) 
It's easy for viewers at home to recognize risk-taking in presentation, but it's just as important for baker's to experiment with flavor. Like with Mak's first signature, all the ingredients are there, but haven't quite melded. If he can refine his blend of boldness, precision, and creativity to deliver consistent results, we think he's got a good shot at making the final. Plus the man keeps bees.

​Flipside- A bottom-third finish in the technical is worrisome. Watch your caramel cook times, Mak. 

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#6 Rowan

 (+/- NA) 🥉
Rowan's ranking was the most controversial this week. In two out of three contests, Rowan's plans went completely awry and he was forced to invent his way out of desperate situations. On the one hand, this demonstrates his tenacity, artistry, and resourcefulness- Rowan salvaged an under-baked cake in the microwave with only a mild rebuke from Paul. And in the technical, he managed to follow the sparse script to an impressive third place finish, showing he has the baseline competency to go far if he can manage to stay out of his own way.

Rowan is the unlikely daredevil this season 🎲- stretching for greatness and skirting total failure far too often. We always root for the baker who takes an all-in, burn-the-ships, approach to every contest, but we rarely see them in the finals. This was only week 1. We hope he'll settle in and make smarter bets to survive deep into the season.

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#7 Mark

 (+/- NA) 
Mark had a great signature, middle of the pack technical finish, and a self-aware, well-executed showstopper. Maybe he's waiting to find his footing before aiming higher. His consistency makes him likely to outlast some other bakers, but the Darwinian survival instincts he's shown so far will not carry him to the finals without something more.

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#8 Laura

 (+/- NA) 
Laura had a mediocre first showing with some encouraging signs in the last challenge. She was sixth in the technical. Her execution on the battenberg was sloppy and bland, and she mismanaged the timing ⏱ and construction of her Freddie Mercury🕺showstopper so badly only Sura's intervention saved it. But she set out to change the judges' opinion of her flavor, and she succeeded. If she addresses some technical weaknesses and continues to take feedback, she could climb the rankings in the weeks to come.

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#9 DAVE

 (+/- NA) 
The tension and nerves in week one must be excruciating. To have another baker knock your technical onto the floor would cause many to snap, but Dave exhibited as calm and as good natured a response as any contestant could in the circumstances. He has a finalists' disposition and exemplifies GBBO's spirit of competition.

While he started strong with his signature espresso battenberg, he was ninth in the technical and though his showstopper was charmingly presented, it lacked texture and flavor. Dave will have to show his mental toughness can help him bounce back from his own mistakes as well. 

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#10 Linda

 (+/- NA) 
Linda's last bake was her best one, and it still wasn't up to snuff for the tent. In all three bakes there was a lack of cohesion, and just one episode in it's hard to tell whether its a problem of scattered vision or execution. She demonstrated she has skills with the quality of flavor and bake in her showstopper, but Linda will have to get more across the finish line next week to avoid going home. We're pulling for you, Linda!

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#11 Marc

 (+/- NA) 
Marc started the week with a strong cherry bake in an overall mixed signature. His problems with rosewater weren't as concerning as what looks to be a pattern of simply hoping for the best. It's impossible to know if Marc had time to correct the error he caught himself making in the technical, but as presented, it didn't appear he considered whether it was worth trying. Equally concerning, he admitted he'd had troubles with his David Bowie 👨‍🎤bake holding form in practice and failed to make the necessary adjustments to save it at showtime. Marc's flavors show promise and his heart is in the right place. We hope he'll tighten up his execution to remain with us next week. 

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Loriea (Finished)

Loreia's signature and showstopper both appeared delightful. From Paul's closing comments, it seems the questionable decision to add scotch bonnets to her chocolate was what pushed her out the tent this week.

We admire Loreia for taking risks and being true to herself. We're sad imagining the range of bold and beautiful bakes we won't get to see her make this season. As lovers of spicy food ourselves, we'd welcome the opportunity to try your baking on this side of the pond. 🇺🇸